More Listings. Slight Uptick in Sales. Buyers Still Hold the Cards.

As we step into summer, Niagara’s housing market continues its delicate dance between rising inventory and cautious buyer activity. May 2025 showed minor gains in sales, but prices continued to slide across most cities. While more homes are coming to market, buyers are still moving deliberately—and the numbers reflect that.

📉 Key Region-Wide Trends (YoY: May 2024 vs. May 2025)
🔹 Sales Activity:
Residential sales edged up 1.4% to 637 transactions—barely above last May’s 628.

Dollar volume hasn’t been released yet, but the slight gain in sales masks deeper price cuts across the region.

Sales remain historically low, and monthly fluctuations aren’t yet pointing to a true rebound.

🔹 Inventory Growth:
New listings jumped 13.3% to 1,993, adding further selection for buyers.

This growth—combined with modest sales—has pushed the sales-to-new listings ratio down to just 31.9%, reinforcing buyer’s market conditions.

🔹 Benchmark Prices:
The composite HPI benchmark dropped 3.9% year-over-year to $628,300.

🧠 Interpretation: A Buyer’s Market with Choices
With the sales-to-new listings ratio well under 40%, we are firmly in buyer’s territory. Homes are sitting longer and selling below asking.

The median days on market rose from 26 to 31 days (↑15.7%), giving buyers more time to negotiate and shop around.

Sellers must now lead with pricing precision and strong presentation to stand out in an increasingly competitive space.

🏘️ Submarket Performance (May 2025 vs. May 2024)

📍 St. Catharines
Sales: ↑8.3%
New Listings: ↑8.7%
Benchmark Price: $554,000 (↑0.6%)
Median DOM: 19 days (no change)

Breakdown:
A relatively balanced market in St. Catharines this month—steady pricing, low days on market, and a modest increase in sales. It’s a bright spot in an otherwise soft regional picture.

📍 Niagara Falls
Sales: ↓19.5%
New Listings: ↓3.2%
Benchmark Price: $611,000 (↓0.6%)
Median DOM: 20 days (↑19.0%)

Breakdown:
Buyer demand is cooling quickly here. Fewer sales, longer selling times, and price erosion all suggest sellers will need to adjust expectations.

📍 Grimsby
Sales: ↓8.8%
New Listings: ↓24.1%
Benchmark Price: $711,400 (↓0.8%)
Median DOM: 22 days (↑7.4%)

Breakdown:
Grimsby saw one of the steepest drops in new listings, but buyers aren’t exactly rushing in either. Slight price drops and longer DOM reflect indecision on both sides.

📍 Lincoln
Sales: ↓9.3%
New Listings: ↑37.7%
Benchmark Price: $746,400 (↓0.6%)
Median DOM: 34 days (↑36.0%)

Breakdown:
Buyers have more choice than ever, but they’re still waiting. Sales dipped while listings soared, and longer DOM shows buyers are in control.

📍 Thorold
Sales: ↔️ 0.0%
New Listings: ↑47.6%
Benchmark Price: $661,100 (↑4.4%)
Median DOM: 28 days (↑3.7%)

Breakdown:
Flat sales and a major inventory boost suggest Thorold is slowly shifting toward oversupply. Still, it posted one of the strongest price gains in the region.

📍 Welland
Sales: ↑27.3%
New Listings: ↑25.4%
Benchmark Price: $567,300 (↑5.9%)
Median DOM: 22 days (↓18.5%)

Breakdown:
One of the few cities showing momentum—higher sales, rising prices, and faster turnover. Welland is standing out as a pocket of strength.

📍 Port Colborne / Wainfleet
Sales: ↑44.4%
New Listings: ↑5.2%
Benchmark Price: $550,800 (↑3.7%)
Median DOM: 61 days (↑38.6%)

Breakdown:
A big sales jump here, but homes are taking much longer to sell. The extended DOM may point to older inventory finally clearing.

📍 Pelham
Sales: ↓19.2%
New Listings: ↑12.7%
Benchmark Price: $848,200 (↑6.8%)
Median DOM: 25 days (↓15.3%)

Breakdown:
Higher-end homes are moving slowly, but prices in Pelham are climbing. It’s still one of the most expensive submarkets, and buyer interest appears selective.

📍 Fort Erie
Sales: ↓12.9%
New Listings: ↑8.2%
Benchmark Price: $558,300 (↑3.8%)
Median DOM: 37 days (↑60.9%)

Breakdown:
Despite some price gains, DOM is surging. Fort Erie is still relatively affordable, but buyer hesitation is becoming more pronounced.

📍 Niagara-on-the-Lake
Sales: ↓17.6%
New Listings: ↑30.8%
Benchmark Price: $970,100 (↑1.7%)
Median DOM: 25 days (↓26.5%)

Breakdown:
NOTL remains the priciest pocket, but with sales down and listings up, the market may be drifting into oversupply—even if DOM improved.

📍 West Lincoln
Sales: ↓26.7%
New Listings: ↑12.5%
Benchmark Price: $746,300 (↓3.1%)
Median DOM: 22 days (↓15.4%)

Breakdown:
West Lincoln saw one of the biggest YoY sales drops. Even with prices falling, buyers seem to be holding back—possibly due to economic uncertainty.

📅 Month-over-Month Snapshot (April → May 2025)

Interpretation:
More listings, more sales, and a small month-over-month price bounce—likely a seasonal blip. But year-over-year trends remain weak, with prices still down nearly 4% and inventory growing.

✅ Final Summary (No Spin, Just the Data)

Prices are still down nearly 11% from the 2022 peak, and the HPI has slid to $628,300. Yet long-term gains remain intact, with values still ~35% above 2019 levels.

Sales are flat YoY and far below long-term averages. Despite the monthly lift, buyer urgency remains low.

Inventory is swelling, and homes are sitting longer. The median DOM is now 31 days (↑15.7% YoY), and homes are typically selling below asking—reflected in a declining sale-to-list ratio.

Buyers are in the driver’s seat—especially in segments with high supply like condos and townhomes. Single-family homes are showing more resilience, but still under pressure.

Not all markets are equal:

• Welland and Thorold show strength, with both prices and sales up.

• St. Catharines is holding steady with fast-moving homes and modest gains.

• Niagara Falls, Lincoln, and NOTL show weakening demand despite new inventory.

• Fort Erie and West Lincoln have seen slowing sales and longer DOM, despite price adjustments.

🏘️ Townhomes and condos remain the weakest links. Prices are down the most in these segments, and DOM is rising steadily. Meanwhile, detached homes remain relatively stable but are not immune.

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