More Homes. More Inventory. More Caution.

As spring bloomed across Niagara, the real estate market faced continued headwinds—balancing rising inventory, hesitant buyer activity, and regionally softening prices. April 2025 marked another month of transition, with a sharp decline in sales, growing active listings, and clear signs that the market is firmly tilting toward a more balanced—if not buyer-leaning—territory.

📉 Key Region-Wide Trends (YoY: April 2024 vs. April 2025)

🔹 Sales Activity:

• Residential sales dropped by 34.5% to 539 transactions—down from 823 in April 2024.

• Dollar volume slid equally at -34.6%, totalling $377M, reflecting both fewer transactions and price adjustments.

• This marks a 51% drop in sales since April 2022 and the lowest April sales count since pre-pandemic 2018.

🔹 Inventory Growth:

• Active listings surged to 3,455, up 31.5% year-over-year.

• New listings dropped 20.2% to 1,546, tightening the flow of fresh supply but still outpacing sales.

• This has pushed the months of inventory to 6.4, up from 4.0 last year—a clear indicator of a slower market with more choice for buyers.

🔹 Benchmark Prices:

• The composite HPI benchmark in Niagara fell to $616,700, a 4.7% annual decline.

• The average sale price was $699,624, virtually flat YoY (-0.2%) but down 18% from the April 2022 peak.

• Median price dropped to $630,000 (↓3.1%), showing sellers are adjusting expectations to meet buyer sentiment.

🧠 Interpretation: Market Balance vs. Buyer Caution

• The sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 34.9%, well below the 40%–60% range that typically indicates a balanced market.

• A sales-to-new-listings ratio under 40% suggests buyer's market conditions, where supply exceeds demand and puts pressure on pricing.

• The sale-to-list price ratio is now at 97.3%, slightly down from 97.7% a year ago—indicating buyers are negotiating more and sellers are more flexible.

🏘️ Submarket Performance (April 2025 vs. April 2024)

📍 St. Catharines

• Sales: ↓36.5%

• New Listings: ↓26.3%

• Benchmark Price: $551,200 (↓6.8%)

• Median Days on Market: 28 days (↑47.4%)

Breakdown:
As Niagara’s largest city, St. Catharines is showing clear signs of cooling. With both listings and sales falling sharply, buyers are taking their time, and sellers are adjusting prices. The extended DOM reflects a more cautious approach from buyers.

📍 Niagara Falls

• Sales: ↓34.0%

• New Listings: ↓29.4%

• Benchmark Price: $607,200 (↓4.0%)

• Median Days on Market: 25 days (no change)

Breakdown:
Despite a sizeable drop in activity, Niagara Falls is holding relatively steady when it comes to time on market. Pricing is adjusting slowly, and while listings are down, demand has softened just as much, keeping things in relative balance.

📍 Grimsby

• Sales: ↓28.6%

• New Listings: ↑1.2%

• Benchmark Price: $755,100 (↓5.5%)

• Median Days on Market: 12 days (↓14%)

Breakdown:
Grimsby remains one of the more desirable and resilient pockets in the region. Quick sales and steady listing activity suggest buyers are still actively pursuing homes in this GTA-adjacent town despite the broader market softness.

📍 Lincoln

• Sales: ↓5.4%

• New Listings: ↑37.0%

• Benchmark Price: $751,100 (↓3.0%)

• Median Days on Market: 23 days (↓14.8%)

Breakdown:
Lincoln is seeing a surge in listings with only a slight dip in sales, suggesting relative strength. Buyers here are responding well to increased selection, and days on market are actually decreasing—a sign of healthy turnover.

📍 Thorold

• Sales: ↑39.3%

• New Listings: ↓33.6%

• Benchmark Price: $633,400 (↑0.3%)

• Median Days on Market: 28 days (↑55.6%)

Breakdown:
Thorold was the only Niagara city to post a sales gain year-over-year, despite fewer listings and longer selling times. The market appears to be stabilizing, possibly buoyed by affordability and investor interest.

📍 Welland

• Sales: ↓29.0%

• New Listings: ↓5.0%

• Benchmark Price: $544,000 (↓2.1%)

• Median Days on Market: 30 days (↑42.9%)

Breakdown:
Welland’s slowdown is typical of a maturing market. While inventory hasn’t surged, the drop in buyer activity has made homes linger longer. Slight price softening points to buyer hesitation rather than panic.

📍 Port Colborne / Wainfleet

• Sales: ↓52.4%

• New Listings: ↓33.8%

• Benchmark Price: $496,700 (↓3.1%)

• Median Days on Market: 45 days (↑55.2%)

Breakdown:
This lakeside submarket is seeing one of the steepest sales declines. Long DOM and a steep drop in transactions suggest buyers are cautious, possibly due to seasonality or lack of newer inventory.

📍 Pelham

• Sales: ↓56.8%

• New Listings: ↓33.0%

• Benchmark Price: $860,100 (↓7.5%)

• Median Days on Market: 41 days (↑13.9%)

Breakdown:
Pelham's luxury-leaning market has been hit hard, with prices and sales falling sharply. It remains one of the priciest towns in the region, but the gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness appears to be widening.

📍 Fort Erie

• Sales: ↓36.1%

• New Listings: ↓29.5%

• Benchmark Price: $646,828 (↓1.3%)

• Median Days on Market: 36 days (↑63.6%)

Breakdown:
Though still relatively affordable, Fort Erie’s slowdown reflects broader buyer hesitancy. Properties are taking over a month to sell, which may open up negotiating room for incoming buyers.

📍 Niagara-on-the-Lake

• Sales: ↓42.9%

• New Listings: ↓19.6%

• Benchmark Price: $954,100 (↓6.0%)

• Median Days on Market: 31 days (↓6.1%)

Breakdown:
NOTL remains the region’s most expensive market, but even here prices are sliding. Despite fewer listings, buyer activity has cooled considerably—suggesting a pricing disconnect, especially for second homes and high-end properties.

📍 West Lincoln

• Sales: ↑46.2%

• New Listings: ↓8.2%

• Benchmark Price: $723,800 (↓4.7%)

• Median Days on Market: 30 days (↓6.3%)

Breakdown:
A surprising bright spot, West Lincoln posted strong sales growth despite fewer new listings. The area’s relative affordability and rural appeal could be drawing buyers priced out of other towns.

📅 Month-over-Month (March 2025 → April 2025) Snapshot

Despite an uptick in sales and listings, benchmark prices continued to soften. This signals that even as activity picks up seasonally, buyers remain cautious and value-driven, often negotiating below asking.

🏠 Property Type Breakdown (HPI Benchmarks - April 2025)

Takeaway:
Condos and townhomes have been hit the hardest by the price correction, suggesting affordability-focused segments are particularly sensitive to interest rates and economic uncertainty.

✅ Final Summary (No Spin, Just the Data)

• Prices are down ~18% from the April 2022 peak, with the composite HPI now at $616,700. Still, prices remain roughly 36% higher than 2019 levels, showing long-term strength despite short-term correction.

• Sales volume dropped 34.5% year-over-year and is 51% below April 2022, making this one of the slowest Aprils in the last decade. However, MoM sales rose 14%, showing typical seasonal activity returning.

• Inventory continues to build — active listings hit 3,455 in April (↑31.5% YoY), pushing months of inventory to 6.4, up from 4.0 last year. This cements Niagara in buyer’s market territory.

• Sellers must adapt — homes now sit for 32 days on average, up from 27 last April. Overpricing leads to longer DOM, and the average sale-to-list ratio is down to 97.3%, meaning buyers are negotiating more.

• Buyers hold more power — with more inventory, longer selling times, and declining prices across most cities, conditions strongly favour those ready to act.

• Not all markets are equal —

  • Thorold is outperforming with sales up 39% YoY and prices holding.

  • West Lincoln also posted 46% more sales despite lower listings.

  • St. Catharines, Niagara Falls, and Lincoln are softening but stable.

  • Port Colborne, Pelham, and NOTL saw large price drops and longer DOM, indicating slower absorption.

• Townhomes and apartments are the weakest links — benchmark prices are down 8–10% YoY, and inventory levels are highest in these segments, especially condos with nearly 8–10 months of supply.

• Detached homes remain the most resilient class, with single-family prices down just 2.9% YoY and only minor shifts in median DOM across the core markets.

📬 Have questions about this market?
You can text us anytime:

Jas: 905-321-3781
Jon: 289-696-2825

We're here to help you navigate it all—objectively and honestly.